When Donald Trump took office for the second time in January this year, his approach towards Russia sharply differed from the Biden administration. The U.S. repeatedly backed Russian President Vladimir Putin in several United Nations debates on the Ukraine-Russia war. However, within five months, Trump’s tone towards India – one of Russia’s closest partners – has hardened significantly, with his administration doubling tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 50%.
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While many in the West point to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil as the reason, Russian media insists the real motive is far more strategic.
From Early Alignment with Russia to Tariffs on India
In February, during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House, Trump clashed with him, accusing Ukraine of avoiding peace negotiations. Trump bluntly claimed that Kyiv could not win against Moscow and hinted that the U.S. would withdraw from the conflict if a deal wasn’t reached.
Given his Russia-friendly stance, experts initially believed Trump would not oppose India’s strong relations with Moscow. Yet by August, his administration had sharply reversed course, targeting India with steep import tariffs.
Russian Experts: U.S. Wants India to Follow Its Strategic Lead
According to Andrey Sushentsov, a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of Russia’s Security Council, the decision to raise tariffs on India was not driven primarily by oil trade. Speaking to Russia’s state news agency TASS on August 9, Sushentsov noted that Trump announced the tariff hike right before his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Putin in Moscow.
Sushentsov argued that the U.S. views India not just as a trading partner but as a potential strategic counterweight to China. Washington wants New Delhi to accept American leadership and scale back its independent foreign policy. However, he stressed that such pressure would fail in the long term, as India has consistently resisted external dictates in its relations with Russia.
Beyond Oil: Strategic Leverage and U.S. Tactics
Sushentsov added that pressuring India is part of Washington’s broader geopolitical playbook. “The U.S. uses trade as a weapon, pushing partners to the point of provocation with little room for compromise. When this fails, the president declares victory and quietly reverses course,” he explained.
He cited Brazil as another example, where Trump backed opposition forces, triggering political resistance. In India’s case, the tariff announcement on August 6 came just a day before Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Moscow. Doval met Putin during the trip and confirmed that the Russian president would visit India by year’s end – a commitment reinforced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in their August 8 phone call.
Deepening India-Russia Ties Despite U.S. Pressure
Russian media outlet RT reported that Doval’s visit focused on expanding cooperation in rare earth minerals, aircraft parts production, and railway development. Indian media also suggested discussions on purchasing additional S-400 missile defence systems – India already operates three units, which it reportedly used during “Operation Sindoor.”
Dmitry Kiselev, head of Russian media group Rossiya Segodnya, told Sputnik News that India and Russia’s relationship is built on mutual trust and will not bend under American ultimatums.
British Diplomat: Targeting India is a Foreign Policy U-Turn
Former British ambassador to Ukraine Leigh Turner described the tariffs as a sharp reversal in U.S. policy. Writing in The Moscow Times on August 11, Turner noted that the U.S. had initially considered 100% tariffs on India but settled at 50%, effective from August 27 – after the scheduled August 15 Putin-Trump summit. He pointed out that no other country buying Russian oil has been targeted, underscoring the specific focus on India.
Turner suggested Trump might strike a deal with Russia that sidelines Ukrainian interests, possibly forcing Kyiv to cede territory. Since returning to office, Trump has already cut U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine and limited intelligence sharing – moves that have eased pressure on Moscow while keeping tariffs aimed at New Delhi.
Trade Statistics Show Why Pressure May Fail
Konstantin von Hofmeister, editor of Eurosrbija.net, argued that the tariff strategy will not succeed because India-Russia trade ties have deepened beyond the point of disruption. Bilateral trade surged from just $13 billion in 2021–22 to $68 billion in 2024–25.
India now imports 35–40% of its crude oil from Russia, along with significant volumes of fertilisers, totalling $50 billion in energy imports last fiscal year. The two countries have also reduced dependence on the U.S. dollar, conducting around 90% of their trade in local currencies. This bypasses Western financial systems and removes the need for SWIFT payment corridors.
Conclusion: Pressure Unlikely to Alter India’s Independent Stance
Trump’s tariff escalation reflects a wider U.S. effort to shape India’s foreign policy priorities – not merely punish its oil purchases. However, history and current trade patterns suggest that New Delhi is unlikely to bow to Washington’s demands.
With Putin’s visit to India scheduled for later this year and bilateral projects expanding in defence, energy, and infrastructure, the India-Russia partnership appears set to weather U.S. economic pressure. For Washington, the challenge remains: India’s strategic autonomy is not easily negotiable.
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