All eyes are on the high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled today in Alaska. While the White House says the main agenda is to discuss ending the ongoing Ukraine war, the summit’s ripple effects could hit India’s economy and foreign policy hard.
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Just days before the meeting, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned that if talks fail, Washington may hike tariffs on Indian exports even further. The Trump administration already raised tariffs from 25% to 50% earlier this month, citing India’s continued oil imports from Russia. The new rates are set to take effect from August 27.
Why Trump’s Tariff Threat Targets India
President Trump argues that increasing tariffs on India will indirectly pressure Moscow by squeezing Russian oil revenues. According to US officials, New Delhi’s discounted oil purchases from Russia have helped sustain its wartime economy, allowing Putin to prolong the Ukraine conflict.
India had expected its traditionally strong ties with Washington to shield it from such measures. However, Trump has labelled India the country imposing the highest tariffs on American exports and insists on retaliating. If no trade deal is reached before August 27, India could become the highest-taxed Asian partner for the US market.
For many Indian exporters—especially in leather, textiles, and gems and jewellery—a 50% tariff is unsustainable. Japanese brokerage firm Nomura warned that such a rate would be “tantamount to a trade embargo,” potentially halting exports of affected products.
The US remains India’s largest export destination, accounting for 18% of its total shipments—equivalent to 2.2% of India’s GDP. Analysts estimate that the tariff hike could shave 0.2% to 0.4% off GDP growth, possibly pushing annual expansion below 6% this year.
India–US Relations Face a Strategic Stress Test
Over the past three decades, India has invested heavily in strengthening its relationship with the United States. Washington, in turn, has viewed New Delhi as a vital counterweight to China’s rise in the Asia-Pacific region.
But Trump’s sharp approach has raised questions about whether this is about trade or personal politics. Some experts argue that the tariff escalation feels “personal,” pointing out that China buys far more Russian oil than India but has been granted a 90-day grace period without similar tariff hikes.
This shift also coincides with signs of growing US support for Pakistan, which could further complicate India’s strategic position. Analysts believe Washington is reassessing its partnership with India, using trade as a pressure tool while keeping Pakistan in play as a regional counterbalance.
Russia Remains India’s Key Defence Partner
Despite expanding defence ties with the US, Israel, and France, India still relies heavily on Russian military equipment. Between 2018 and 2023, India purchased $13 billion worth of Russian arms, with another $10 billion in pending orders.
Currently, 60–70% of India’s military hardware is of Soviet or Russian origin. Maintaining and upgrading this arsenal—through spare parts, servicing, and overhauls—remains impossible without Russian cooperation. Even if India reduces new purchases, it will need Russian support for at least the next decade to keep its existing systems operational.
Any US attempt to penalize India for its defence ties with Russia could create deeper rifts. This is why New Delhi will be watching the Alaska talks closely, hoping for a breakthrough that avoids further sanctions or restrictions.
Balancing Geopolitical Priorities
For India, the Trump–Putin meeting is about more than just tariffs. It is a test of its ability to maintain balanced relations with both Washington and Moscow while safeguarding its economic and strategic interests.
Although India appears closer to Russia on energy and defence, it needs strong US ties for economic growth and global influence. Experts say a successful summit could help India keep both relationships intact, whereas failure might force difficult policy choices.
Trade negotiations remain the most immediate path to easing tensions, but the underlying geopolitical balancing act will continue. A productive Alaska meeting could strengthen India’s hand in preserving both its economic momentum and strategic autonomy.
The Pakistan Factor in US Foreign Policy
One complicating element is Washington’s renewed engagement with Pakistan after “Operation Sindoor.” Both the US and China have historically leveraged Islamabad to pressure New Delhi.
Given Pakistan’s fragile democracy, foreign powers find it easier to influence its leadership, often using it as a regional counterweight to India. This “Pakistan factor” has long been a challenge to India’s foreign policy independence.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has made strategic autonomy a cornerstone of its diplomacy, but US and Chinese manoeuvres involving Pakistan remain persistent threats to that goal.
What’s at Stake for India
For New Delhi, the Alaska summit could either ease a brewing trade crisis or deepen economic and diplomatic strains. A positive outcome—such as a commitment to de-escalate tariffs—would not only support India’s export-driven sectors but also help maintain the strategic equilibrium between its two most important global partners.
If talks collapse, however, India faces the dual risk of a major export slowdown and increased geopolitical isolation. Either way, the events unfolding in Alaska today will have repercussions far beyond the icy landscapes where Trump and Putin meet.
Trump–Putin meeting, Alaska summit, India–US trade tensions, US tariffs on India, Russia–India defence ties, India–Russia oil imports, Pakistan factor in US policy, geopolitical balance, India exports to US, strategic autonomy.
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